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 Post Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2011 8:38 am 
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Host of the Decibel Show "n00b"/CCLA Member/CC Best Homegrown Coach 2010
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NLY

Annaly is a mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT). I've held out but now have bought some because...

1. Of the mREITs this has the most respected team. High praises all around, and almost everyone investing in mREITs has shares in it.

2. One of the highest yields at 15%.

3. The housing market, to me, has hit bottom and is very slowly recovering now. I see for sale signs now when I never did 12 months back. I see this as a good sign for REITs.

4. Recent insider buying.

5. The price crashed and looks to be on the rise now.

Anyhoo, how REITs function is beyond me, but they do some shit with mortgage payments, and are tax exempt as long as they pay 90% of their income off as dividends. Giving almost all of your income away to me doesn't sound sustainable, but I guess it's worked for them.

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The Chodefest Journals. dB's reports in one spell-binding ebook.

MAN SCHOOL. Let's get this handled.

Coming soon, my directorial debut, Blood Rush.


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 Post Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2011 3:44 pm 
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I think the market will go up for a couple of months, maybe more, maybe less. The last rise we have seen is all a media hype. The market is reacting to the banks buying more bad assets and loans and printing more money in a positive way.

Honestly, I believe we are gonna have a crash of never before seen proportions. The banks are totally out of control. We are seeing wars all over. I wonder when they decide to go in to Iran. The sanctions have already started, which is the first action before war.
Bashar is obviously going down soon. Tension in Israel, Pakistan, Iran, Egypt and China (among so many other places) and the US are out playing the army of the world, getting more enemies every day. I am just saying that people have gone to war for less than what's going on.
With the passing of the National Defense Authorization act they just turned your home into a battlefield and can, without trial, detain you indefinitely.
Cops and military are trained to take on the American people. Its like nazi germany for god's sake!

Unfortunately most of the American People get ALL their info from mainstream media, which is all controlled by the same people.

Anyways, long rant. I will be selling my stocks sometime soon.


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 Post Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2011 9:35 pm 
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My understanding is there are a few factors that determine stock price:

1. Fundamentals (of the company and of the US/world economies)
2. News events
3. Emotions/sentiment

In the end fundamentals will prevail, but short-term it's all about news events and how they shape emotions and sentiment. As Graham said, the market is at first a voting machine, but ultimately a weighing machine.

Short term, I can understand being spooked away by world events (the fundamentals do look crappy). But long term, the US economy seems to be holding steady and making slow progress from where it landed a few years ago. Many companies have cash sitting around and are waiting for the right time to begin expanding. Investing in US stocks is a vote of confidence in our ability to weather the shit being throw at us from within and from outside. I do believe there are plenty of sound US businesses which will prosper in the coming years, and I want to be a part of these companies.

Historical perspective is needed to remain calm:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/ ... ull_b.html

The first graph shows a steady rise over the past century. There may be long periods of plateau, but eventually the market as a whole will rise if you're planning long term (20 years or more). That means if you at very least invest in the market average, you'll make money, but ideally with sound tactics will beat the market. This is IN SPITE OF world wars, presidential assassination, the great depression, and so on. The market survives and gets back on its feet even when all hope is lost.

When you consider keeping your money in cash, adjusting for inflation, this is a losing strategy. US inflation averages 3.5% or so. CDs and money markets, etc pay 1% interest. By putting your money in the bank, you're still down roughly 2%. Investing is still imo the best use of cash.



My picks for this week are Ebay and GPC (Genuine Parts Company). I'm not ready to buy ebay because my portfolio is a tad too tech heavy, but I think now is a good time to get in. And I plan on getting GPC when the price drops a bit, since it's trading near its 52 week high. Both companies have a surplus of cash and good PEs.

_________________
Street Kings, Gigsaw vs Doc:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApU-pHp0_Ug

The Chodefest Journals. dB's reports in one spell-binding ebook.

MAN SCHOOL. Let's get this handled.

Coming soon, my directorial debut, Blood Rush.


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 Post Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2011 10:16 pm 
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Just want to let you know that that is my exact investment strategy. People like Buffet and Benjamin Graham. My investment strategy (in most cases) is that I am buying companies I intend to wanna own in 10 years.

But these are extreme times bro. I can't tell you to be cautious because you have your mind set already, but I am very cautious.


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 Post Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2012 7:58 pm 
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The market rally continues and the portfolio is doing well. I'll embellish at a later date.

My focus over the past few months is learning how to value stocks. I consider myself a smart guy and can wrap my head around complex subjects but this has been one of the sorriest ventures I've undertaken. There is no consensus out there on what method is the best to determine what a stock is valued at, and all the explanations are convoluted. And by best I mean rigorously studied and proven to have high predictive power.

Someone must know the answer but I have yet to find it. And if you figure out which stocks are trading well below their true value you can expect those to appreciate. And then sell if you believe they are trading well above value.

The search continues...

_________________
Street Kings, Gigsaw vs Doc:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApU-pHp0_Ug

The Chodefest Journals. dB's reports in one spell-binding ebook.

MAN SCHOOL. Let's get this handled.

Coming soon, my directorial debut, Blood Rush.


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 Post Posted: Sat Jan 28, 2012 8:09 am 
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Ok, for shnits n gigs I thought I'd check in with my portfolio to see where each stock is, up or down. I know it's too soon to do anything about it, but it's still insightful. Here are the stats...

NLY 7.4
KKR 20
IAU 3
SBUX 7.2
KMX 7.5
GPC 5.9
ITUB 15
ABV 1.4
MCD 0
SCHW (3.3)
NG 1.5
SAPE 29
APPL 4.7

These are percent up or (down).

The winners thus far are Sapient and KKR and ITUB (a bank in Brazil). I didn't include BIDU because I sold half of it and not sure exactly how much I'm down, but I'm down a lot. These numbers also factor in the 5$ commissions.

Overall the portfolio is up just under 10%, factoring in fees. My goal is to beat the market, and the 4% rate I pay for my equity line used to fund this. So far so good.

My plan was to find beaten down stocks representing good companies that nobody talks about, and those have been my biggest winners. I'd add I've been leaning towards high dividend payers lately, in the 8-20% range.

_________________
Street Kings, Gigsaw vs Doc:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApU-pHp0_Ug

The Chodefest Journals. dB's reports in one spell-binding ebook.

MAN SCHOOL. Let's get this handled.

Coming soon, my directorial debut, Blood Rush.


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 Post Posted: Sat Jan 28, 2012 8:14 am 
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My cretin computer likes to randomly delete shit, so here's the full list...

NLY 7.4
KKR 20
IAU 3
SBUX 7.2
KMX 7.5
EBAY (2.4)
BAC 14
KMX 7.5
GPC 5.9
ITUB 15
ABV 1.4
MCD 0
SCHW (3.3)
GLW (6)
NG 1.5
SAPE 29
APPL 4.7

_________________
Street Kings, Gigsaw vs Doc:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApU-pHp0_Ug

The Chodefest Journals. dB's reports in one spell-binding ebook.

MAN SCHOOL. Let's get this handled.

Coming soon, my directorial debut, Blood Rush.


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 Post Posted: Sat Jan 28, 2012 12:50 pm 
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Decibel wrote:

In the end fundamentals will prevail, but short-term it's all about news events and how they shape emotions and sentiment. As Graham said, the market is at first a voting machine, but ultimately a weighing machine.



My perspective is that of a trader that did well for like 3 years, then lost it all ($40K) in like a week (no exaggeration) on a righteous gamble. Options on a triple leveraged Direxion ETF. So take that into account when I say whatever I say.

I definitely think that in order to succeed in the stock market you gotta first know who you are. Short term tech trader or long term fundamental trader? The reason I think I fucked up in the stock market is the same reason I'm not married to a supermodel right now...cuz I haven't fully decided which I am yet. I fully believe that once you get like, all Zen centered and shit, you will have the same tunnel vision with stock advice that you have with chicks and become successful. Me personally, I'm in some kind of a middle lane funk with my life so I stopped trading for the time being.

I will say that trading short term news is fun as hell, though. Just make sure you have a fast ass execution. USAA is super fast, even though it's not even a full brokerage.

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 Post Posted: Wed Feb 15, 2012 8:38 am 
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I ditched a few stocks...NLY in favor of ARR, and KMX.

ARR is a highly leveraged mREIT which pays out 18.8% dividend. The stock price has been extremely stable for the past couple of years, and with the Fed promising to keep rates locked, I suspect this is a fairly reliable place to invest for now. I also see high yielding REITs to be the new safe-haven; often on lousy days for the market, you see the REITs in the black.

KMX's 2011 numbers looked lousy and I have given up hope on them. They've had a down year so far when everyone else is rallying. I broke even on KMX.

I started a tiny position in NBG. Stupidly, I didn't think to look into Greek businesses when the shit hit the fan over there. Had I done my research, I would've noticed Greece's largest bank barely holding on at less than 2 bucks a share. Those who got in at that point saw their investment more than double over the next few months. The price is still low between 3-4, and it could drop to zero, but with a possible injection of money from the ECB and China (and possibly covertly from the US), I see the price rebounding a bit first. A speculation, not a long term hold.

Also got into deep sea drilling, seeing a higher demand and rising oil price. SDRL (SeaDrill Limited) seems to be among the most popular, though has a lot more debt than I like to see. From reading posts by those who follow the industry, it seems like this stock is headed up.

And lastly, I added more Apple. I have a feeling this will be THE stock of the year. The price fell when Jobs died, but Cook appears to have shit handled and has hinted at a dividend. Apple is the richest company in the country and it's share price though expensive is still too low. I expect a continued rebound.

_________________
Street Kings, Gigsaw vs Doc:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApU-pHp0_Ug

The Chodefest Journals. dB's reports in one spell-binding ebook.

MAN SCHOOL. Let's get this handled.

Coming soon, my directorial debut, Blood Rush.


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 Post Posted: Wed Feb 15, 2012 2:30 pm 
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Today was a good example of how to play the market. One of my best performers has been sapient (sape). Good fundamentals and the price has risen about 25%. Well they just posted a huge jump in earnings last quarter. How did the market react? It punished the share by dropping about 8%. Idiotic. Naturally I bought more, nearly doubling my position. After this drop the price came back up to end the day down about half a percent. So essentially my investment went up 7.5% today. If our bull rally resumes I think sape will keep making me money, though the PE is creeping into overvalued territory.

I try to keep cash on hand for these times and if possible jump on any unfair drop more than 6%.

_________________
Street Kings, Gigsaw vs Doc:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApU-pHp0_Ug

The Chodefest Journals. dB's reports in one spell-binding ebook.

MAN SCHOOL. Let's get this handled.

Coming soon, my directorial debut, Blood Rush.


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